Quarterly U.S. Rural Economic Review
Second Quarter 2020
Rural Resilience in the Pandemic
Over the past two decades, the U.S. rural economy has trailed the urban economy in just about every measurable category, including GDP and employment. The rural-urban divide grew particularly wide during the years following the 2008-09 financial crisis. But that trend may be changing.
Topics In this Issue:
- Dented Food Service Demand Defines Q2
- Dairy Sector Struggles Through Extreme Market Volatility
- What the “New Normal” Signifies for Rural Energy and Water
First Quarter 2020
Coronavirus Testing Labor and Supply Chains of Essential Rural Industries
COVID-19 has brought the U.S. economy to a screeching halt, and ushered in a recession in the process. The number of U.S. coronavirus cases is now expected to peak by late April, and the economy should begin to come back to life in May.
Topics In this Issue:
- COVID-19 Disrupts Labor, Supply Chains and Consumer Behavior
- Macro Economic Outlook
- California’s Water Law will Stress Irrigators
Second Quarter 2019
Stalled Trade Talks, Record Rains Upend Agriculture
Global economic growth continues to slide as tariffs drag on global trade and manufacturing. In April, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projected that global growth in 2019 would slow to 3.3%, down from 3.6% in 2018, as trade tensions take a bigger toll on business confidence.
First Quarter 2019
Agriculture Still Waiting for Relief
U.S. agriculture is poised for serious challenges for the remainder of 2019. Large grain and oilseed supplies, continuing increases in global animal protein and dairy production and major trade uncertainties will prevail for much of the year. At the same time, U.S. and global economic growth rates will slow.
Fourth Quarter 2018
Agriculture Limps into 2019
Agriculture and its farmer cooperatives will face a challenging environment in 2019. Commodity markets have steadied, but resolution of ongoing trade disputes and completion of recently concluded trade negotiations will be critical to restoring optimism for the year ahead.
Third Quarter 2018
Rising Output Compressing Agricultural Margins
Ongoing trade negotiations and disputes continue to be a disruptive factor in both the short-term and long-term outlook for U.S. agriculture and its farmer cooperatives.
Strong growth in the U.S. and global economies will support demand in the domestic and export markets through much of 2019.
Second Quarter 2018
Trade War Rhetoric Shifts to Reality
The world’s two largest economies, the U.S. and China, are driving growth in the global economy. At the same time, the emerging markets are benefitting from growth in the advanced economies and global trade has broadened the base for economic growth.
First Quarter 2018
Trade War Risks Loom Over Agriculture
An impending trade war, continued large global supplies, and negotiations over a new farm bill and tax extenders continue to present challenges for U.S. agriculture and farmer cooperatives.