QUARTERLY U.S. RURAL ECONOMIC REVIEW
Second Quarter 2019
Stalled Trade Talks, Record Rains Upend Agriculture
Global economic growth continues to slide as tariffs drag on global trade and manufacturing. In April, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projected that global growth in 2019 would slow to 3.3%, down from 3.6% in 2018, as trade tensions take a bigger toll on business confidence.
First Quarter 2019
Agriculture Still Waiting for Relief
U.S. agriculture is poised for serious challenges for the remainder of 2019. Large grain and oilseed supplies, continuing increases in global animal protein and dairy production and major trade uncertainties will prevail for much of the year. At the same time, U.S. and global economic growth rates will slow.
Fourth Quarter 2018
Agriculture Limps into 2019
Agriculture and its farmer cooperatives will face a challenging environment in 2019. Commodity markets have steadied, but resolution of ongoing trade disputes and completion of recently concluded trade negotiations will be critical to restoring optimism for the year ahead.
Third Quarter 2018
Rising Output Compressing Agricultural Margins
Ongoing trade negotiations and disputes continue to be a disruptive factor in both the short-term and long-term outlook for U.S. agriculture and its farmer cooperatives.
Strong growth in the U.S. and global economies will support demand in the domestic and export markets through much of 2019.
Second Quarter 2018
Trade War Rhetoric Shifts to Reality
The world’s two largest economies, the U.S. and China, are driving growth in the global economy. At the same time, the emerging markets are benefitting from growth in the advanced economies and global trade has broadened the base for economic growth.
First Quarter 2018
Trade War Risks Loom Over Agriculture
An impending trade war, continued large global supplies, and negotiations over a new farm bill and tax extenders continue to present challenges for U.S. agriculture and farmer cooperatives.